Tuesday, June 26, 2007

It Moves Ever So Closer…

Of all the polls that I read at RCP (Real Clear Politics,) I have always thought that the Rasmussen poll was the most realistic and accurate. As time and the announcement on July 4th draws nearer, the polls are reflecting what I have observed anecdotally. Fred Thompson is the front-runner for the GOP nomination.

People that I live work and interact with on a regular basis have heard me talk about Fred. I have asked them what they think and they say the more they know about him the more they like him. Even the ones who do not like W right now, like Fred. I think existing candidates have not fired them up. Rudy McRomney has not excited the base. Mitt is really attractive as a candidate, the more I hear him the more I like him. Rudy is a one issue right, many others not-so strong candidate. McCain is out since Fred jumped in. (If McCain would have been leading or had a chance to win, Fred would not have run). This leave Thompson with a opportunity that many would dream of, stepping into the race on the top of the polls.

Some say that after the shine leaves him after the announcement, Rudy will jump back on to. This may happen, but it is not likely. I believe there are a lot of GOP heavy hitters that are waiting for Fred to fully commit before they jump ship. I think this race for the GOP nomination will be over very quickly when Fred steps up. The second and third tier candidates will drop, McCain will leave gracefully, thanks to the Immigration (Ahhhh- Amnesty-chooo) bill he supports and that will leave Romney, Rudy and Fred.

Romney has the financial advantage, but all from large donations. Small individual donations that signify grass roots support are not there. Mitt can stick around as long as he has money to do so, he will at least stay until after Iowa and NH since his whole plan revolves around decisive victories in those two spots that would spring him to the nomination. If Fred looks to be stealing these from him, he may stay in to see how it plays out. If Fred is second in either or wins both Romney is out, since Fred will win the big super primary with the heavily western and southern states in play. Romney has to win big in both and win one southern state to be in the game.

Rudy is a whole other story. Fred’s entry into this race dooms his chance to win. Rudy needed to be the best alternative to the core of the conservative base to receive the nomination. Rudy clearly is right on defense, Iraq and perhaps immigration (I still have some sneaking doubts in Immigration with RG). But on most, if not all social issues I am out of step with him, in particular, on abortion. Rudy needed weaker opponents that him with similar flaws or more outside the GOP base. With McCain and Romney, Rudy had it made. He could say, “If not me, who can…beat Hillary, keep you safe, lower your taxes??” Rudy would be the choice on the base conservative issues that are top of the list. With Fred in, people can say, Fred can do that, and he’s with us on abolishing abortion too.

Fred now has to earn the nomination outright by filling the role we, as the grass roots effort that pulled him into the race, have created for him. His audition for the GOP candidate role has been completed. He now must fill the big role we have written for him and live up to our expectations. We have made him out to be greater than he probably is due to our longing for a Reagan-like man to lead us during this time of great challenges, both foreign and domestic. If he can just hold the public’s attention long enough to let the rest of the voters see the potential commander in chief, communicator and leader in him, it will be his nomination to lose.

Stay tuned,

RR

Lil’ Bush is Funny. Really.

There was Bush standing with his dad, talking with Condoleezza. “Hey let’s ask Cheney.” The camera panned and there’s Cheney standing next to his dad, who is wearing a Darth Vader Mask. I actually fell out of my chair and rolled on the floor laughing. It was so funny. Then the four friends Cheney, Bush, Rice and Rove went on a panty raid of an Al Qaida camp, stealing a pile of loincloths. Then the four put on the makeup and sang a rock song dressed up like KISS.

I watched the Comedy Central show Lil’ Bush the other night. And I loved it. The satire just oozed out of the show. First off, I support W big time and I only saw one episode. Now I didn’t agree that all of the shots taken by the creators were fair but it was funny nonetheless. They took some shots at the Dems too but most of the comedy was at the expense of W’s crew.

I could have done without one piece though, the portrayal of Jeb as a dumb moron. I thought that was a little over the line, but the rest was fair game. Jeb being shown as he was outlines an unconscious fear of Jeb and his ability to become president. I know it’s a cartoon, but I think the creators really are trying to take a shot a Jeb to damage him, in a cartoonish sort of way.

W and his crew can handle this. So can Jeb. There have been many incarnations of this on Comedy Central (That’s My Bush for example) I think W probably doesn’t like all of it, but he has a sense of humor enough to snicker at the cartoon versions of himself and his crew pelting al Qaida campers with water balloons.

Could you imagine the outrage if this was reversed? How does Lil’ Hil sound? You’re probably offended already if you’re a democrat. You will never see Lil’ Hil though cause the democrats would never let it happen #1 and #2 it would not be funny.

This is another example of the Politainment I have been talking about. I think it’s pretty effective. If you’re a dem, you like the portrayals of the Bushies, if you’re a GOPer you like Bush nuking all this things he didn’t like when his dad left him in the War Room. It had something for everyone. As long as they stay away from serious social topics ( like abortion), I will probably watch the show for an escape from the serious reality of today’s politics.

Now if you had Lil’ Bill…I would pay money to see that. Could you imagine the story lines they could delve into? The FCC censors would probably have to take that off the air…

Stay tuned,

RR

Politainment: Hillary Soprano should sound an alarm

I think Hillary Clinton looked electable. I think she was very down to earth and really human.

No don’t try to adjust your browser. This is still the RR doling out truth here. I am not suffering from a head injury or any other loss of my faculties. I am talking about the brilliant piece of Campaign media that Hillary 08 campaign put out the other day. Hillary’s Soprano spoof with Bill’s cameo. It was fantastic. They did something that none of the other candidates, (save one) could do. They took a pop culture event, the Sopranos finale, and made it an endearing show of how Hillary and Bill are just two normal people. They used the new media machine to reach a whole new audience.

I know it was Hillary and Bill re-enacting the final scene from the finale of Sopranos. I know it was heavily produced and planned. The real triumph here was that they were making fun of themselves a little bit, trying to be funny and most importantly, gave people a chance/reason to like them.

They really took advantage of the youtube phenomena with this. A lot of people saw it. If the Hillary 08 team has more of these little vignettes in the hopper, they can be guaranteed some new voters and some old ones to at least take a look at what Hillary has to say. This should sound the alarm to the Dems and GOP that they better be prepared to respond in kind or be left behind by the Hillary machine.

I couldn’t help think how disappointed viewers were with the end of the Sopranos finale. Bill and Hill took a risk with this spoof and I think it paid off. I believe that they learned this lesson from W. They learned that self-deprecation is good, in small funny doses, for a president to do. Just look at the funny little videos W has put out over the years.

Just to make you feel better, the other candidate that can jump into this type of new media battle is evident here in his response to Michael Moore. Fred can play this politainment game too. Hey, I like that word I just made up. Politainment – the use of entertainment to reach/attain a political objective. Well then, if Hillary and Fred are the nominees, we will have our fill of politainment for the next 18 months.

One last thing, I thought the carrot sticks for Bill were a nice touch too.

Stay tuned,

RR

Back in the Game

I was gone for a while working hard at my job, but with school out that the summer ahead, it’s time to get back to the front. As they used to say, “Huzzah and onward.”

Let us continue….

Stay tuned,
RR