Of all the polls that I read at RCP (Real Clear Politics,) I have always thought that the Rasmussen poll was the most realistic and accurate. As time and the announcement on July 4th draws nearer, the polls are reflecting what I have observed anecdotally. Fred Thompson is the front-runner for the GOP nomination.
People that I live work and interact with on a regular basis have heard me talk about Fred. I have asked them what they think and they say the more they know about him the more they like him. Even the ones who do not like W right now, like Fred. I think existing candidates have not fired them up. Rudy McRomney has not excited the base. Mitt is really attractive as a candidate, the more I hear him the more I like him. Rudy is a one issue right, many others not-so strong candidate. McCain is out since Fred jumped in. (If McCain would have been leading or had a chance to win, Fred would not have run). This leave Thompson with a opportunity that many would dream of, stepping into the race on the top of the polls.
Some say that after the shine leaves him after the announcement, Rudy will jump back on to. This may happen, but it is not likely. I believe there are a lot of GOP heavy hitters that are waiting for Fred to fully commit before they jump ship. I think this race for the GOP nomination will be over very quickly when Fred steps up. The second and third tier candidates will drop, McCain will leave gracefully, thanks to the Immigration (Ahhhh- Amnesty-chooo) bill he supports and that will leave Romney, Rudy and Fred.
Romney has the financial advantage, but all from large donations. Small individual donations that signify grass roots support are not there. Mitt can stick around as long as he has money to do so, he will at least stay until after Iowa and NH since his whole plan revolves around decisive victories in those two spots that would spring him to the nomination. If Fred looks to be stealing these from him, he may stay in to see how it plays out. If Fred is second in either or wins both Romney is out, since Fred will win the big super primary with the heavily western and southern states in play. Romney has to win big in both and win one southern state to be in the game.
Rudy is a whole other story. Fred’s entry into this race dooms his chance to win. Rudy needed to be the best alternative to the core of the conservative base to receive the nomination. Rudy clearly is right on defense, Iraq and perhaps immigration (I still have some sneaking doubts in Immigration with RG). But on most, if not all social issues I am out of step with him, in particular, on abortion. Rudy needed weaker opponents that him with similar flaws or more outside the GOP base. With McCain and Romney, Rudy had it made. He could say, “If not me, who can…beat Hillary, keep you safe, lower your taxes??” Rudy would be the choice on the base conservative issues that are top of the list. With Fred in, people can say, Fred can do that, and he’s with us on abolishing abortion too.
Fred now has to earn the nomination outright by filling the role we, as the grass roots effort that pulled him into the race, have created for him. His audition for the GOP candidate role has been completed. He now must fill the big role we have written for him and live up to our expectations. We have made him out to be greater than he probably is due to our longing for a Reagan-like man to lead us during this time of great challenges, both foreign and domestic. If he can just hold the public’s attention long enough to let the rest of the voters see the potential commander in chief, communicator and leader in him, it will be his nomination to lose.
Stay tuned,
RR
People that I live work and interact with on a regular basis have heard me talk about Fred. I have asked them what they think and they say the more they know about him the more they like him. Even the ones who do not like W right now, like Fred. I think existing candidates have not fired them up. Rudy McRomney has not excited the base. Mitt is really attractive as a candidate, the more I hear him the more I like him. Rudy is a one issue right, many others not-so strong candidate. McCain is out since Fred jumped in. (If McCain would have been leading or had a chance to win, Fred would not have run). This leave Thompson with a opportunity that many would dream of, stepping into the race on the top of the polls.
Some say that after the shine leaves him after the announcement, Rudy will jump back on to. This may happen, but it is not likely. I believe there are a lot of GOP heavy hitters that are waiting for Fred to fully commit before they jump ship. I think this race for the GOP nomination will be over very quickly when Fred steps up. The second and third tier candidates will drop, McCain will leave gracefully, thanks to the Immigration (Ahhhh- Amnesty-chooo) bill he supports and that will leave Romney, Rudy and Fred.
Romney has the financial advantage, but all from large donations. Small individual donations that signify grass roots support are not there. Mitt can stick around as long as he has money to do so, he will at least stay until after Iowa and NH since his whole plan revolves around decisive victories in those two spots that would spring him to the nomination. If Fred looks to be stealing these from him, he may stay in to see how it plays out. If Fred is second in either or wins both Romney is out, since Fred will win the big super primary with the heavily western and southern states in play. Romney has to win big in both and win one southern state to be in the game.
Rudy is a whole other story. Fred’s entry into this race dooms his chance to win. Rudy needed to be the best alternative to the core of the conservative base to receive the nomination. Rudy clearly is right on defense, Iraq and perhaps immigration (I still have some sneaking doubts in Immigration with RG). But on most, if not all social issues I am out of step with him, in particular, on abortion. Rudy needed weaker opponents that him with similar flaws or more outside the GOP base. With McCain and Romney, Rudy had it made. He could say, “If not me, who can…beat Hillary, keep you safe, lower your taxes??” Rudy would be the choice on the base conservative issues that are top of the list. With Fred in, people can say, Fred can do that, and he’s with us on abolishing abortion too.
Fred now has to earn the nomination outright by filling the role we, as the grass roots effort that pulled him into the race, have created for him. His audition for the GOP candidate role has been completed. He now must fill the big role we have written for him and live up to our expectations. We have made him out to be greater than he probably is due to our longing for a Reagan-like man to lead us during this time of great challenges, both foreign and domestic. If he can just hold the public’s attention long enough to let the rest of the voters see the potential commander in chief, communicator and leader in him, it will be his nomination to lose.
Stay tuned,
RR
2 comments:
Mitt has it all, apart from he's a Mormon. Either Fred or Mitt for the nomination.
Either way Osama Obama and Clinton must be defeated.
It would be nice if he'd actually get out there and talk a bit so people could see where he stands on the issues.
Post a Comment