Filling the Void

Fred had finally woken up to the fact that he can't just waltz in the the nomination. Perhaps he has just been waiting for the Law and Order "Dum-Dum" sound to signal the kick off of his campaign. He is going to spend the next two weeks living and campaigning in Iowa It may be too late.

Let's look at some of the numbers from RCP.

11/25 - 12/06 Iowa Caucus RCP Average
Huckabee- 29.6 Romney - 23.4 Thompson - 10.6
Giuliani - 10.4 McCain - 6.3 Paul - 5.0
Spread -- Huckabee +6.2

In Iowa, Huckmentum, the corollary to Omentum (Oprah/Obama), has taken hold. The reason seems clear, and it is not really encouraging. The religious right in Iowa has decided to reject Romney for the Huckster. His move up seems to be occurring right after he stressed his christian background, putting Romney's faith in the light.

I do not agree that there should be a religious test for the nomination or to make you a conservative, but seemingly in Iowa, that is what is occurring. Huck is getting the majority of his support from evangelical Christians. From the Caucus Cooler...

"Whether you like it or not (we don't) the guy playing the most important role in GOP primary right now died about 2000 years ago... You can't underestimate the strength of the evangelical block in IA, and they've found their man...And its going to be a tough thing for even the most boffo political organization to stop."

I expect Huck to get brought down to earth before Christmas. Why? Because most people did not know anything about him. He was a blank state. He filled that conservative void that Fred was looking to fill. He may still win Iowa, but not at the margin he is at now. Why? Wayne Dumond, Tobacco Money Payments, and his stance on immigration.

Fred has to step it up and come in second in Iowa or Huckabee needs to lose in Iowa. If neither happens, Fred has no shot in S.C. Huckabee can't win the nomination either, solely based on his immigration position.

The Dems are very happy that Fred, McCain and Guliani are on the ropes. The media loves Huck. Mmm I wonder, do the Dems and media think that Huck would be good for them as a nominee? When you compare policy and position of Fred and Huckabee, Fred is the true heir to Reagan, but Huckabee comes off like Fred was supposed to, affable, quick, serious and approachable. If only Fred could take the void back from Huck.

Hillary is smiling....

Stay Tuned,

RR