Iowa Debate - Who was the Winner?

RR's Thoughts on the Debate:

Tancredo

Tom is really fabulous and he is targeted on two issues, illegal immigration and the war against islamofacists. It is too bad that he cannot win a general election.
Keyes The Ambassador really is a great speaker and he is clearly being insulted by a process that allows Paul to speak but not him. Not that Paul does not deserve to be there, he does. But Keys should be allowed to play up to a point (Till After NH.)

Huckabee

He really stepped in it with his video statement regarding faith. Saying that a person stating he is a "person of faith, but it does not guide my decisions" is not really a person of faith. Huckbee is trying to twist and subtly attack Romney. I think Romney is on the high ground in this discussion and Huckabee really looks bad continuing to harp on this. The more he defines his candidacy on his religion and not being Mormon, takes away from his ability to show he has other issue based strengths for other voters who care less about what religion a leader is. I think that is his weakness here, he is a one point candidate (His Christianity) that sounds really good in sound bites,

Thompson
Fred was presidential and the winner of this debate. I am not saying this cause Fred is my guy. (I am not pulling a "KJL" like her support of Romney) I really think he won the debate. Too bad it was at 2 pm on a Wednesday. Fred really nailed why he should be president with this statement,

"When the enemies of this country are at the negotiating table, who do you want representing you? Whoever that guy is, that's the guy you ought to vote for for President."

He was also good putting down that liberal moderator, Carolyn Washburn, editor of the Des Moines Register. Thompson stuck it to he on the global warming-hand up moment.

"I'm not doing any hand shows today."

Washburn
Washburn was a factor in the debate. Carolyn (I have heard he called Nurse Ratchet) should be led out back and told to walk into the corn field never to return. Or she should be checked to see if she was a Clinton plant ( My guess is that she is a big time liberal.) She did a disservice to the potential republican caucus goers by holding a debate whose main goal was to make the candidates look stupid. I think her questions, time limits (although justified) and overall inability to really bring issues out was disappointing. I am curious to see if she 1. is still moderating the dem debate today and 2. if she asks similar irrelevant questions in similar ways to the dems.

I also thought her slam of the Republicans in the beginning of the debate was uncalled for. (Paraphrasing - the dems have debated a lot in Iowa, you haven't. So I am here to make you pay for that. WHAAA!!!!)

McCain and Giuliani
These two were at the debate? I think they were effectively neutered at this event. The format did not suit them. I think they could have skipped it and gotten a bump from it.

Romney
Other than KJL's love for Romney as a candidate rubbing off at NRO and getting him their endorsement, There really was no true good or bad done to or by Romney in this Debate. He does benefit every time the Huckster takes a crack at Mormons.

I bet today's debate will be very serious and will contrast well with the Repubs.

Stay Tuned,

RR

Filling the Void

Fred had finally woken up to the fact that he can't just waltz in the the nomination. Perhaps he has just been waiting for the Law and Order "Dum-Dum" sound to signal the kick off of his campaign. He is going to spend the next two weeks living and campaigning in Iowa It may be too late.

Let's look at some of the numbers from RCP.

11/25 - 12/06 Iowa Caucus RCP Average
Huckabee- 29.6 Romney - 23.4 Thompson - 10.6
Giuliani - 10.4 McCain - 6.3 Paul - 5.0
Spread -- Huckabee +6.2

In Iowa, Huckmentum, the corollary to Omentum (Oprah/Obama), has taken hold. The reason seems clear, and it is not really encouraging. The religious right in Iowa has decided to reject Romney for the Huckster. His move up seems to be occurring right after he stressed his christian background, putting Romney's faith in the light.

I do not agree that there should be a religious test for the nomination or to make you a conservative, but seemingly in Iowa, that is what is occurring. Huck is getting the majority of his support from evangelical Christians. From the Caucus Cooler...

"Whether you like it or not (we don't) the guy playing the most important role in GOP primary right now died about 2000 years ago... You can't underestimate the strength of the evangelical block in IA, and they've found their man...And its going to be a tough thing for even the most boffo political organization to stop."

I expect Huck to get brought down to earth before Christmas. Why? Because most people did not know anything about him. He was a blank state. He filled that conservative void that Fred was looking to fill. He may still win Iowa, but not at the margin he is at now. Why? Wayne Dumond, Tobacco Money Payments, and his stance on immigration.

Fred has to step it up and come in second in Iowa or Huckabee needs to lose in Iowa. If neither happens, Fred has no shot in S.C. Huckabee can't win the nomination either, solely based on his immigration position.

The Dems are very happy that Fred, McCain and Guliani are on the ropes. The media loves Huck. Mmm I wonder, do the Dems and media think that Huck would be good for them as a nominee? When you compare policy and position of Fred and Huckabee, Fred is the true heir to Reagan, but Huckabee comes off like Fred was supposed to, affable, quick, serious and approachable. If only Fred could take the void back from Huck.

Hillary is smiling....

Stay Tuned,

RR

It Moves Ever So Closer…

Of all the polls that I read at RCP (Real Clear Politics,) I have always thought that the Rasmussen poll was the most realistic and accurate. As time and the announcement on July 4th draws nearer, the polls are reflecting what I have observed anecdotally. Fred Thompson is the front-runner for the GOP nomination.

People that I live work and interact with on a regular basis have heard me talk about Fred. I have asked them what they think and they say the more they know about him the more they like him. Even the ones who do not like W right now, like Fred. I think existing candidates have not fired them up. Rudy McRomney has not excited the base. Mitt is really attractive as a candidate, the more I hear him the more I like him. Rudy is a one issue right, many others not-so strong candidate. McCain is out since Fred jumped in. (If McCain would have been leading or had a chance to win, Fred would not have run). This leave Thompson with a opportunity that many would dream of, stepping into the race on the top of the polls.

Some say that after the shine leaves him after the announcement, Rudy will jump back on to. This may happen, but it is not likely. I believe there are a lot of GOP heavy hitters that are waiting for Fred to fully commit before they jump ship. I think this race for the GOP nomination will be over very quickly when Fred steps up. The second and third tier candidates will drop, McCain will leave gracefully, thanks to the Immigration (Ahhhh- Amnesty-chooo) bill he supports and that will leave Romney, Rudy and Fred.

Romney has the financial advantage, but all from large donations. Small individual donations that signify grass roots support are not there. Mitt can stick around as long as he has money to do so, he will at least stay until after Iowa and NH since his whole plan revolves around decisive victories in those two spots that would spring him to the nomination. If Fred looks to be stealing these from him, he may stay in to see how it plays out. If Fred is second in either or wins both Romney is out, since Fred will win the big super primary with the heavily western and southern states in play. Romney has to win big in both and win one southern state to be in the game.

Rudy is a whole other story. Fred’s entry into this race dooms his chance to win. Rudy needed to be the best alternative to the core of the conservative base to receive the nomination. Rudy clearly is right on defense, Iraq and perhaps immigration (I still have some sneaking doubts in Immigration with RG). But on most, if not all social issues I am out of step with him, in particular, on abortion. Rudy needed weaker opponents that him with similar flaws or more outside the GOP base. With McCain and Romney, Rudy had it made. He could say, “If not me, who can…beat Hillary, keep you safe, lower your taxes??” Rudy would be the choice on the base conservative issues that are top of the list. With Fred in, people can say, Fred can do that, and he’s with us on abolishing abortion too.

Fred now has to earn the nomination outright by filling the role we, as the grass roots effort that pulled him into the race, have created for him. His audition for the GOP candidate role has been completed. He now must fill the big role we have written for him and live up to our expectations. We have made him out to be greater than he probably is due to our longing for a Reagan-like man to lead us during this time of great challenges, both foreign and domestic. If he can just hold the public’s attention long enough to let the rest of the voters see the potential commander in chief, communicator and leader in him, it will be his nomination to lose.

Stay tuned,

RR

Proof of Qualification - Fred for President

Proof of Qualification - Fred for President. Fred Thompson will be the President of the U.S. Today, Michael Moore charged Fred as a hypocrite regarding trade policy and the embargo against Cuba for having cigars on his desk. Moore did this in this letter. If you have any doubt that Fred is not the man read that letter and then watch Fred's instant response to it here. Fred did this in like an hour of the letter being posted on the web. i envision Freed reading the letter online and then asking his staff to bring a web cam into the office to immediately tape his response. This proves the GRAVITAS that Fred bring to the table. He is head and shoulders above the current announced field. He would wipe the floor with all of them

I just got done watching tonight's debate too. Mitt sounds great. McCain still sounds like a liberal, Giuliani sounds like he's against abortion still. Mitt sounds like the most Conservative candidate in the top tier. He was impressive. McCain cannot win. He has Mr. Roboto arms. I know that's a negative but in the general, Roboto arms will be a deal breaker. Giuliani still supports abortion, so America will not be with him. Boy did Mitt zing them both. Hunter was awesome with his direct approach. Tancredo mentioned Jack Bauer, which is how all of us want to picture our real CTU working.

The truth is Fred would have OWNED that debate. When Fred gets in, all of the top tier candidates have to drop out because their ability to be an effective conservative voice disappears. Watch the video mentioned earlier again. That's our President talking....

Stay Tuned...

RR

The Right Man for 2008

We need Fred Dalton Thompson to run for president in 2008. He is the only candidate that can unite the conservatives and the rest of the republican party. He was there to help get Reagan elected in 1980 and now its his turn.

About three weeks ago I was wondering who I would vote for. I knew McCain, who I initially supported in 2000 (Sorry W, I did come around) was not an option for me. Even though he's strong on the war, some of his social positions are a little wobbly. That left Giuliani and Romney. I like Rudy, but his abortion position is troublesome. I know he would not impose his views on this issue on the country, but I just think that I want a stronger pro life candidate in the White House. And Mitt is Mitt. He's seems to be pretty good, but I just don't know enough about him.

That left me asking, who else could their be. I really like Tancredo, but he's 'not in it to win it' (Sorry Hillary, but the line fits.) Tancredo is there to really stir the pot on illegal immigration. I think he will do that, but I don't think he can win. The other second and third tier guys and gals are all good but not great. That's when I remembered the 2004 Republican convention speech/introduction by Fred Dalton Thompson. I remember that when I saw that, I thought, " WOW that guys got it all." They now call that GRAVITAS. And Thompson's got it.

I won't go into all his positions or why he is better than the other top three, but as a slew of conservative writers are saying, there is a conservative void in this group of candidates. Fred fills that void and carries with him the rest of the conservatives and republican party. His strait talk and understanding that DC is dangerous place for an honest man (W learned this lesson early on too.) will help him become the best option for the country in this time of need.

I believe he is currently gauging interest in a run. His mentor, former senator Howard Baker, is making the rounds measuring interest and setting up fundraising commitments, since if he does do this he will need $$$ in a hurry. With the advanced schedule he has to make up his mind soon. I think he will announce to run in April. I think if he decides to run, conservatives and republicans will RUN, not walk, to him as the front runner.

In the next couple of days I will outline why I think Fred is the man to lead us in 2008. Check out the Fred 2008 Buzz links to keep up to date with the latest news.

RR